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Thursday, September 4

Statistical model corrects undercounting of fallen during 2 decades of political violence

Statistical model leaves Peru counting the cost of civil war: "Ball and his colleagues applied a statistical method developed in the late nineteenth century to count wild animals. It has since been used to adjust census estimates of hard-to-count groups such as the homeless. Multiple-systems estimation (MSE) relies on the existence of overlapping partial counts of a population. The principle is that the chance of an individual appearing on two lists is equal to the product of their chances of appearing on each list separately. Ball's team compared seven lists of dead and missing people compiled since 1980." Nature When the death toll for political violence in Peru was raised to 69,000, from 35,000, I asked what methodology was used to make the adjustment. Well, this article provides the explanation.

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