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Monday, September 3

Forbes Peru budget seen too optimistic: "Giant projects like the Camisea natural gas reserve due to bring gas to Lima by 2003 and the zinc and copper mine Antamina, with operations set to reach full capacity next year, are key in helping Peru recover, analysts say. Antamina alone could account for 1.8 percent of GDP in 2002." The government is banking on 5 percent GDP growth next year. Though a definite possibility due to pent-up opportunities and goodwill, much more will depend on building toward long-term growth fundamentals. Peru does not need another boom-bust cycle of two-three years. The danger is that this "retro" economic team may not be around long enough to lock in all the variables, and there is no replacement crew waiting in the wings.

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